Key projected climate change impacts that the project team considered for the San Juan National Forest include:
- A warming trend and increased average annual temperatures
- Variable precipitation patterns with decreased snowpack and earlier snowmelt and peak runoffs
- Increased drought that may drive fires and insect outbreaks
- The relative proportions of component species may change
Climate change will present challenges and opportunities for accomplishing the management objectives of the San Juan National Forest, including:
CHALLENGES
- The dense understory of white fir and Gambel oak currently acts as ladder fuels contributing to wildfire hazard in the area
- The forest has been subjected to a range of insects and diseases, such as western pine beetle, fir engraver, Douglas-fir beetle, root disease, and dwarf mistletoe
OPPORTUNITES
- Interactions of climate change, fire, drought, and insect outbreaks may lead to changes in species dominance for novel species
- Increasing structural heterogeneity will break up fuels and reduce the chance of large, catastrophic wildfires